Day two in a series where Radio V tries (in vain) to predict who will win on Music's Most Overhyped Night®.
The Best New Artist winners vacillate wildly between two extremes: The new artist with the best chance of establishing a prolonged career (see: Carey, Mariah; The Beatles; Crow, Sheryl), and alternately, the best future laughingstock/trivia question (see: Cross, Christopher; Arrested Development; Hootie, Assorted Blowfish).
The only apparent guiding principal, at least since handing the award to Milli Vanilli in 1990, is to go for the authentic article. Big-voiced divas, Six-string slinging singer-songwriters and self-contained bands have split the trophies over most of the last two decades.
Here's how we break down the nominees.
Chris Brown has a great chance at winning...a Kids' Choice Award. Last time I checked Grammy voters weren't 12. There's always the theory that competing contingencies can split the vote allowing for a Marisa Tomei-like "fifth option" to slip through, that won't happen here. Even his distributing company, BMG, has another candidate to split the in-house vote. With his nasal vocals, paint-by-numbers R&B tracks and Michael Jackson-via-Usher-via Darren's Dance Grooves moves, Brown has done well to get this far. If he wins, I would...scratch that, no need to have people vote for him just to make me fulfill some silly bet, but let me put it this way. If you're at a bookie, have $5 and are looking to buy a house the next day, put money down on Chris Brown to win. The odds have to be somewhere around those of Paris Hilton getting hit in the exposed cooch by an errant asteroid.
The least likely winner of the four "serious" candidates is Imogen Heap. That has zero to do with her musical credentials, mind you. Heap records for an independent label (though her album's distributed stateside by BMG), makes electronic music and was last a "new artist" 9 years ago when her first solo album was released. She's got a great backstory, having recorded her entire album alone to not be accused of being any producer's puppet singer, but she's gathered little of the momentum commercially or critically to propel her to the award.
James Blunt, everyone's favorite obsessive-compulsive, stripping Brit has a legitimate shot at winning this, but he reminds Radio V, and probably voters, too much of Marc Cohn. For those not up on their one-hit wonder trivia, Cohn and Blunt are both AC singer-songwriters with one relatively big hit to his name and who have yet to deliver again. In Cohn's case that's been fifteen long years. I covered this territory in my last post, but long story short, Blunt needs a second hit, stat. Even if it happens today, tomorrow, next year, it's too late.
The Delicious diva of Half-Frappes herself, Corinne Bailey Rae is a legitimate threat to take this category. With a vocal style often compared to Billie Holiday and looking young while singing old sounding soul songs, Rae could be compared (easily) to 2003 winner Norah Jones. She's got an album that's a step shy of the stratosphere a la Toni Braxton when she won the title back in 1994. Most importantly, there's a feeling that she can sustain the career she has built without the machinations of the big record industry machine. In an business where profits are getting slashed like the Wal-Mart's smiley's on a rampage, that's a very sexy proposition.
That leaves American Idol Carrie Underwood. Carrie's walked a fine line since winning Idol, and done so admirably. Her "Some Hearts" is the biggest selling album of 2006 AND by any Idol regular since Paula Abdul's "Forever Your Girl." She's managed to win the hearts of Country and Christian radio, and should carry much of the support of the Nashville community on Grammy night. We all know she can really sing, even Cowell thinks so, so there's no risk there. The only question is, will the rank-and-file take her (an Idol) seriously as an artist? Well, last year they rewarded Kelly Clarkson with two trips to stage, and then Taylor Hicks...forget I mentioned him. Aaaaaanyway, she's got the goods, can she get the Grammy?Should Win: Corinne Bailey Rae
Will Win: Carrie Underwood
No comments:
Post a Comment